Thriller? Daughter drowns after parents lose track of her at school play

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Trying to remember the name of what I think is a thriller movie? Maybe a drama? I remember an opening scene of a flooded home or something and maybe a floating ballerina music box. Otherwise the only scene I recall is the parents lose track of their child at an event like a school play or performance and they frantically approach the kids who are wearing identical costumes like their daughter, but none of them are her. She ends up drowning. I think she fell off a bridge?

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